Standard Chartered: Vietnamese Economy Shows Moderate Growth

Standard Chartered Bank’s latest macro-economic update assessed that Vietnam's key economic areas remain relatively robust for the rest of 2024.
November 06, 2024 | 10:32
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Standard Chartered points out that Vietnam’s macroeconomic data for October is anticipated to show a moderation in growth compared to September, adding that this easing trend may support keeping interest rates low. Also, Vietnamese GDP growth for the year would reach 6.8% from the previous figure of 6.0%, with momentum slowing from the third quarter. For the fourth quarter, the growth is expected to moderate to 6.9%.

Retail sales growth is 6.2% a decrease from 7.6% of last month, the export sector has eased to 6.2% from 10.7%. On the other hand, electronics exports may have improved further on a year-to-date basis. Imports and industrial production likely grew at 4.0% and 9.2%, respectively while credit growth has remained at around 9% year on year as of the end of September.

Vietnam has posted several months of trade surpluses this year and the external sector has stayed relatively solid. For example, the monthly trade surplus may have widened to reach US $3.8 billion in October, compared to the figure of US $2.3 billion in the previous month.

Standard Chartered Bank expects Vietnam to have a robust GDP growth of 6.7% in 2024. (Photo: vneconomy)
The bank recently forecast that Vietnamese GDP growth for the year would reach 6.8% from the previous figure of 6.0%, with momentum slowing from the third quarter (Photo: vneconomy)

“We acknowledge the economy’s ability to perform better than market expectations,” said Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Thailand and Vietnam of Standard Chartered Bank.

The foreign expert also noted that the Government’s push for stronger economic growth may support low interest rates in the near future.

"Inflation has slowed recently but likely rose to an estimated 3.0% in October and is expected to continue increasing on an annual basis, with a further rise anticipated in mid-2025. This ongoing upward trend in inflation, coupled with a likely weaker local currency, underpins Standard Chartered’s expectation for the State Bank of Vietnam to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in the second quarter of next year,” he noted.

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