Asia's economic boom: India's 7.2 pc growth projection sets pace in outperforming US and Europe

Asian earnings growth is forecasted to outpace that of the US and Europe for both this year and the next, according to a recent analysis by CLSA quoting Bloomberg's projections.
June 11, 2024 | 08:00
Asia's economic boom: India's 7.2 pc growth projection sets pace in outperforming US and Europe

This optimistic outlook aligns with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) latest monetary policy report, which predicts a robust growth rate of 7.2 per cent for India in the fiscal year 2025.

According to CLSA, the projections for Earnings Per Share growth (EPSg) reveal that the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Asia-Pacific index is expected to see a substantial increase of 15.0 per cent in 2024, followed by a steady 11.9 per cent in 2025.

In contrast, the MSCI World index, which includes global companies, is expected to grow by a more modest 7.9 per cent in 2024 and 11.9 per cent in 2025.

The US market, represented by the S&P 500, is forecasted to grow by 10.5 per cent in 2024 and 13.1 per cent in 2025. Meanwhile, Europe's growth, represented by the MSCI Europe index, is predicted to face a decline of 5.2 per cent in 2024, before recovering to an 8.1 per cent increase in 2025.

Emerging markets (MSCI EM), driven largely by Asian economies, are expected to see the most significant growth with a 18.1 per cent increase in 2024 and 14.7 per cent in 2025.

The strongest performer among these, MSCI Asia excluding Japan, is expected to achieve a remarkable 22.9 per cent growth in 2024 and 15.3 per cent in 2025. This highlights the shifting focus towards Asia as a critical driver of global economic growth.

India stands out in the Asian growth narrative, with the RBI's projection of a 7.2 per cent growth rate for 2025 reflecting strong domestic economic fundamentals.

This growth is attributed to various factors, including strong consumption, a resilient services sector, and a boost in investment and infrastructure development.

Key metrics such as EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) and net margins are being closely watched, with many Asian stocks showing continued expansion in these areas.

Moreover, companies that consistently improve their Return on Equity (ROE) and Economic Value Added to Invested Capital (EVA/IC) are gaining significant attention.

In addition to earnings growth, the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies is contributing to the positive outlook in the Asian market.

The rising demand for AI capabilities and associated technologies, such as data centers and the requisite computational power, is expected to bolster economic growth further. A recent report by Yew Kiang Wong, Head of REITs Research, emphasises the potential for significant gains in the ASEAN region from these technological advancements.

The stark contrast in earnings growth forecasts between Asia and other regions underscores the shifting dynamics in the global economy.

Investors and analysts are increasingly looking to Asia for growth opportunities, driven by strong economic fundamentals, technological advancements, and favourable demographic trends. (ANI)

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