India's GDP set to reach $4 trillion, eyes $5 trillion amid global challenges: Sanjeev Sanyal

During the Cambridge India Conference held at the historic Cambridge Union, Sanjeev Sanyal, a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India, forecast reaching a $4 trillion GDP milestone this year, outpacing global growth rates.

He shared insights into India's remarkable economic growth trajectory and future prospects while engaging in dialogue with Kishen Shastry, a PhD economist from the University of Cambridge. Sanyal highlighted India's ambitious goal to surpass the $4 trillion GDP mark and solidify its position as the world's fastest-growing economy.

"This year, India's GDP will reach $4 trillion, putting us on par with Japan in terms of economic size. We continue to lead as the world's fastest-growing economy by a significant margin. Last year, our growth rate surprised us at 8.2 per cent, and we anticipate over 7 per cent growth this year, outpacing all major economies," Sanyal stated.

He emphasized the compounding effects of India's growth rate, noting the rapid pace at which economic milestones have been achieved.

In a discussion, Sanyal said, "After liberalization, it took us 16-17 years to cross the first trillion dollars mark. It took another 7 years to reach the 2 trillion dollars mark, which happened in 2014-15. It took another 7 years to hit the 3 trillion dollars mark in 2021-22. It should have taken 5 years, but we lost 2 years because of COVID-19. In just 3 years, we will cross 4 trillion dollars. Now we will need only 2 years to cross 5 trillion dollars unless some major unseen shock happens."

anyal underscored the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability, addressing non-performing assets in banks, bureaucratic reforms, enhancing global trade engagement, and investing in sustainable energy through renewables and green technologies.

"Our well-capitalized banks and maintained macroeconomic stability during COVID-19 were critical. While we sustain growth, we're committed to supporting vulnerable populations through direct transfers to alleviate poverty," Sanyal remarked.

Regarding legal reforms, Sanyal called for modernizing India's legal system. "Administrative and judicial reforms are essential. We need a modern legal system for efficient justice and contract enforcement," he emphasized.

Sanyal also critiqued global ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) standards, expressing skepticism about their imposition without fair consultations by North Atlantic agencies.

With key roles in economic policymaking, including Principal Economic Advisor to the Finance Minister since 2017, Sanyal has shaped numerous economic surveys. India is expected to overtake Japan and Germany to emerge as the world's third-largest economy by 2027.

Currently, in US dollar terms, India is the fifth largest economy with a size of about $3.7 trillion in nominal terms. Notably earlier in June, Shaktikanta Das, Reserve Bank of India Governor, during his address at the 188th AGM (Annual General Meeting) of Bombay Chamber of Commerce & Industry said that India is at the threshold of a major structural shift in its growth trajectory.

The governor added that India is moving ahead towards 8 per cent GDP growth in a sustained manner, adding that the average growth India recorded in the last three years is 8.3 per cent.

According to the recently unveiled data by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, India's GDP surpassed all expectations and stood at 7.8 per cent in the January-March quarter. The full-year 2023-24 GDP has been revised upwards to 8.2 per cent from the second advance estimate of 7.6 per cent.

While the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Fitch Ratings have estimated India's growth at 7 per cent, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), S&P Global Ratings and Morgan Stanley projected a 6.8 per cent growth rate for FY25.