Vietnam’s Trade Revenue to Surpass US$660 billion this year

Plastic bags are made for export to the EU, the US and Canada at HAPLAST Joint Stock Co in Hung Yen province. Photo: VNS

Statistics from the department show the country’s total trade revenue stood at $602 billion in the first 11 months of this year, surpassing the $500 billion mark recorded two years ago.

During the period, the country earned $299.67 billion from exports, up 17.5%, and $299.45 billion from imports, up 27.5%, resulting in a trade surplus of $225 million.

According to the agency, this year’s trade turnover is likely to surpass the $660 billion mark, making Vietnam one of the 20 leading economies in terms of international trade.

Between January and November, 34 groups of commodities ranked in $1 billion each from exports, accounting for 93.5% of the total export turnover. Notably, seven groups of export products earned more than $10 billion each, making up 66.4% of the total.

Processed industrial products took the lead with $266.75 billion from exports, a year-on-year rise of 18% and accounting for 89% of the country’s total export turnover.

A container ship is seen at Tan Cang Cai Mep Terminal in the southern province of Ba Ria-Vung Tau. Photo: VnExpress

The United States was Vietnam’s largest export market in the 11 months with a turnover of $84.8 billion, up 22.2%. It was followed by China, the European Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Republic of Korea and Japan.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade says Vietnam pointed out great opportunities for Vietnam to raise its exports in the remaining month on the back of economic recovery in major powers such as the US and the EU that are Vietnam’s leading trade partners.

Moreover, the increasing demand in the year-end would help to boost exports for the whole year, the ministry said.

The ministry noted that Vietnam’s goods-for-export structure has changed dramatically over the past decade, and the $100 billion mark has been surpassed every two years.

In 2011, there were 21 groups of commodities that earned more than $1 billion each from exports, of which only garment exports bagged $14 billion. However, 10 years later the number of groups of commodities earning more than $1 billion each from exports rose to 34, with seven of them raking in $10 billion or more each (November 2021 statistics).

It is a good sign that the goods-for-export structure has changed significantly, from labour intensive sectors such as garment, footwear and fisheries, to high-tech commodity groups like phones, computers, and machinery, says a representative of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

Vietnam’s economy should get back to GDP growth of 6.8% next year: HSBC

Vietnam’s economy should get back to GDP growth of 6.8% next year, which will be driven by a return of strong foreign direct investment (FDI) into the market, mainly focusing on the manufacturing sector, CEO of HSBC Vietnam Tim Evans has said.

This would benefit Vietnam's exports, especially as free trade agreements that have been signed over the past two years start to bear fruit, according to the CEO, as cited by VOV.

The continued expansion of the middle class and in particular the rising affluent sector will lead to changes in consumption as Vietnamese start spending more and more on leisure and travel.

A worker at a garment and textile firm in Vietnam. Photo: VnExpress

Infrastructure roll-out will also continue to fuel economic activity especially in the renewable/green arena given the strong ambitions made by the Vietnamese Government following the recent 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, the UK.

Meanwhile, the World Bank (WB) said in the December edition of its Vietnam Macro Monitoring that Vietnam’s economic conditions continued to improve, with both industrial production and retail sales registered a third month of growth.

Merchandise exports hit a record high of $31.9 billion, helping maintain a second consecutive month of trade surplus while FDI commitment recovered after a brief dip in October, according to the report.

Inflation ticked up due to fuel price hikes, recovering non-food domestic demand and rising logistic costs while credit growth remained stable, providing amble liquidity to support the economy recovery. After two months of decrease, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3% month-on-month in November.

Compared to a year ago, the CPI rose by 2.1% year-on-year, slightly higher than in October, but well below the 4.0% target set by the State Bank of Vietnam.

The government continued its contractionary fiscal stance as the budget balance posted another month of surplus, driven by strong revenue collection, the report noted.

The policy of “living with Covid-19” will involve continued vigilance and fast action by the authorities, both in vaccination and in social distancing, testing, and quarantine. There is also clear need for fiscal policy support to boost private demand and help the domestic economy recover. Providing financial assistance to impacted workers and households would be an essential avenue to achieve this objective, according to the report.

Given the available fiscal space, and difficulties registered in implementing the budget in 2021, another policy option for consideration is a reduction in the value-added taxes for 2022 to support private consumption./.

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