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Brighter economic outlook

Vietnam's economy in 2024 has achieved numerous positive results, highlighting the effectiveness of recent government efforts to address policy and institutional challenges.

Photo: T.L

Despite a turbulent global context, with the dedicated efforts of the government, ministries, sectors, and localities, Vietnam's economy stands out in the region, achieving a growth rate of 7%. Earlier, HSBC’s Global Research team predicted that Vietnam’s economic growth would rank among the highest of the six largest economies in Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand.

In fact, according to international organizations, Vietnam is set to experience a period of robust economic growth and remains the only Southeast Asian representative among the top 10 fastest-growing emerging economies worldwide, with a forecasted growth rate of 6.4% from 2024 to 2029.

Encouragingly, after years of unmet targets, Vietnam is set to achieve and even surpass all 15 socio-economic indicators in 2024. With a GDP growth rate exceeding 7%, the average GDP per capita is projected to reach between US$4,700 and US$4,730.

According to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's total import and export value for 2024 is estimated at approximately US$782.33 billion, the highest figure ever recorded. The trade surplus is expected to reach US$23.53 billion.

Notably, amidst intense global trade competition, Vietnam's economic scale has shown remarkable progress. The country currently ranks 35th globally and is among the top 20 nations with the largest trade volumes worldwide, marking its ninth consecutive year of a trade surplus. Vietnam has also integrated deeply into the global economy, recognized as a market economy by 73 countries. It has signed 16 free trade agreements (including CPTPP, EVFTA, and RCEP) with over 60 major global partners.

Vietnam's national brand value has demonstrated the fastest growth globally since 2019, increasing by 74%. In 2024, it climbed one rank to 32nd out of 100 strong national brands, with a valuation of US$431 billion, according to Brand Finance, a leading brand valuation and strategy consulting firm headquartered in the UK.

Commenting on Vietnam's economic growth over the past year, economist Nguyen Minh Phong noted that the recovery of Vietnam's economy has been marked by significant milestones, particularly in industrial production, trade services, and import-export performance. These achievements provide a solid foundation for Vietnam to step confidently into a new era of development.

Determined to achieve growth targets

Entering 2025, Vietnam's economy is forecasted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to reach a scale of US$506 billion, ranking 33rd globally. HSBC Vietnam has also expressed confidence that the country’s GDP will grow by 6.5% in 2025, maintaining the highest growth rate in the region.

Moreover, the National Assembly has set an economic growth target for 2025 at 6.5% to 7%, with ambitions to strive for 7% to 7.5%. Notably, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, during the National Conference summarizing Resolution No. 18, set an ambitious GDP growth goal of 8% for 2025. This target is envisioned as a launchpad for achieving double-digit growth from 2026 to 2030.

Photo: VOV

While the goals have been outlined, they pose significant challenges for Vietnam, given the mix of opportunities and difficulties anticipated both domestically and globally.

To achieve these targets, experts have emphasized the need for decisive, comprehensive, and synchronized solutions in 2025. For example, Vietnam must strengthen supply chains in high-tech processing industries, accelerate digital and green transitions, and streamline administrative systems. These measures aim to enhance economic self-reliance, boost international integration, and adapt to increasingly complex and unpredictable geopolitical competition.

The country must prioritize fostering robust economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, ensuring major economic balances, and achieving significant surpluses. Accelerated momentum and breakthroughs are crucial.

Additionally, removing obstacles and driving growth in Vietnam's five centrally governed cities—key engines of regional development—should be a central focus. Stimulating domestic consumption, addressing issues like high airfare prices to boost tourism, and promoting household spending are also essential.

Vietnam must continue expanding industrial development and heavily investing in transportation infrastructure, particularly expressways, new airports, urban railways, and the North-South high-speed rail system. These projects will serve as critical growth drivers.

Supporting businesses remains a priority. Alongside government measures, local authorities must actively engage in resolving challenges faced by enterprises. The united determination of Vietnam's political system will lay the groundwork for achieving the nation’s 2025 economic growth objectives, propelling the country into a new era of national advancement.

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