International Organizations Forecast Vietnam's Economic Growth Opportunities
Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings recently issued an optimistic forecast for Vietnamese economic growth for this year and ahead of 2025.
Specifically, Fitch Ratings reports that Vietnamese domestic financial and monetary policies have greatly supported the economy. Indeed, Fitch forecasts that national economic growth is likely to reach 6.3% in 2024, rising to 7.0% by 2025.
According to the latest Asian Development Outlook (ADO) Report published by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Vietnamese economic growth this year will be maintained at 6%. Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also predicted that the country will rank 20th in the world with a growth rate of 5.8% in 2024.
Regarding the Socio-Economic Development Plan for 2024, the 15th National Assembly has set a GDP growth target of 6% to 6.5%, along with an average CPI growth rate of 4% to 4.5%.
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Talking to VOV, Tran Van Lam, a member of the National Assembly's Finance and Budget Committee, said that in the current context setting a growth target of 6% to 6.5% is feasible as the three growth pillars of exports, investment, and consumption are all showing positive signs.
In line with this, the domestic market's demand is also indicating signs of recovery, with a large amount of money from the stimulus support package being injected into the national economy as a means of boosting production and consumption. Public investment will still be disbursed, albeit slowly, with private investment expected to recover, he continued.
Regarding consumption, this year will see the country implement wage reform, which will also create greater demand to provide a platform for the economy to grow stronger than in 2023.
"If there are no adverse or sudden factors, the growth target set for 2024 is completely achievable," Lam emphasized.
According to forecasts made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Vietnam's GDP will grow by 5.8% in 2024, making it among the 20 highest-growing economies in the world.
Similarly, VinaCapital Group expects the country’s GDP growth to recover to reach 6.5% in 2024 thanks to export recovery.
VinaCapital's prediction is based on a number of factors, such as the recovery of the export market, the situation in the manufacturing industry, and financial management.
BNN Network evaluates that, in the face of global economic fluctuations and domestic inflation, the nation can still emerge as a "lighthouse" of recovery, in which the driving force is the combination of cautious policies of the Government, strategic economic planning, and a steadfast commitment to stability and development.
Economic experts have also made positive and optimistic forecasts regarding Vietnamese GDP growth next year. Accordingly, economist Dinh Trong Thinh affirmed that the nation's GDP in 2024 will grow strongly as the country is determined to intensify public investment, production, and business activities; domestic growth; and the attraction of attractive foreign investment capital.
Economic expert Nguyen Minh Phong expects that the national economy will grow strongly in 2024 due to the recovery of industries, and export growth, as well as support measures from the Government coupled with proper economic policies.
Amid the world and domestic situation facing plenty of difficulties and with the aim of achieving GDP growth of over 6%, Phong said that the Government needs to have updated solutions in order to adapt to the market. This includes creating a favorable business environment, increasing infrastructure investment, promoting foreign investment attraction, and accelerating administrative procedure reform.
"The first thing that needs to be done is that businesses need to review and restructure their contracts and apparatus and look for new contracts, niche markets, and newly opened markets.
Second, the State must support businesses in finding international markets, while avoiding embargoes from the US and Russia, and must have solutions to neutralize them in a complex world context. Third, it is essential to strengthen investment value reforms to support businesses," said Phong.
Economic expert Dinh Trong Thinh also proposed a number of solutions such as stabilizing the Vietnamese currency, containing inflation in a bid to enhance business activities, stimulating consumer demand to help products become better and competitive in the international arena, as well as lowering selling prices to promote domestic consumption.
Furthermore, local businesses need to actively digitize and green the economy as a means of reducing production costs, improving competitiveness, and gaining easier access to the market in line with international standards.
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