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Vietnam to become 4th largest economy in Southeast Asia, said IMF

09:15 | 18/10/2020

Vietnam is expected to surpass Singapore and Malaysia to become the fourth biggest economy in Southeast Asia in 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its October report.

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vietnam to become 4th largest economy in southeast asia said imf
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook released this week. (Photo: IMF)

Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to reach 340.6 billion USD this year, making it the fourth-largest economy in Southeast Asia. This is revealed in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook released this week.

The Investement Bridge (nhipcaudautu) quoted IMF that Vietnam continues to be the only country in Southeast Asia to have growth this year and in 2021, the economy will grow 6.7 percent. During the next five years, Vietnam’s GDP is set to jump by 6-7 percent annually, compared to Singapore’s 2-5 percent. This means by 2025, Vietnam’s GDP could reach $530 billion, exceeding that of Singapore by 22.7 percent.

Having success in combatting coronavirus, Vietnam has become one of a few countries to have positive economic growth this year. For GDP per capita, the IMF forecasts that Vietnam's GDP per capita ranks sixth in ASEAN, reaching 3,497 USD per person this year, followed by the Philippines with 3,372 USD, Laos 2,567 USD, Cambodia 1,572 USD, and Myanmar 1,332 USD.

vietnam to become 4th largest economy in southeast asia said imf
Vietnam to become 4th largest economy in Southeast Asia, said IMF. (Photo: VNA)

Overall, the average growth forecast for ASEAN-5 member countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam will decrease by 3.4 percent, while that of Asian emerging and developing countries will decrease by 1.7 percent, Vietnam Plus cited.

Vietnam’s GDP increased 2.12% during the first nine months of 2020, according to the General Statistics Office. Speaking at the Cabinet meeting in early October, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc called for more efforts to achieve GDP growth rate of 2.5-3 percent this year as V-shaped recovery is becoming clearer over the past months.

According to tradingeconomics.com, in the first half of 2020, Vietnam was the unique country among major economies in ASEAN posting positive economic growth (1.81%) while other nations announced negative economic growths including Malaysia (-16.5%), Singapore (-13.3%), Thailand (-9.7%), Indonesia (-4.19%) and the Philippines (-15.2%).

vietnam to become 4th largest economy in southeast asia said imf
The country has gone almost a month and a half without new local Covid-19 infected cases. (Photo: Cong Thuong)

The country has gone almost a month and a half without new local Covid-19 infected cases.

Also according to IMF, China continues to be the only major economy expected to grow, reaching 1.9 percent this year and up to 8.2 percent by 2021. For the US, the IMF forecasts that the country's GDP will decrease by 4.3 percent this year. The economies of France, Italy, the UK and Spain are forecast to decrease by about 10 percent. For Europe, the figure is 8.3 percent.

"We were projecting a somewhat less severe though still deep recession this year, relative to our June forecast," said Gita Gopinath, IMF's economic counselor and director of research.

“Moreover, recovery is not assured while the pandemic continues to spread. With renewed upticks in COVID-19 infections in places that had reduced local transmission to low levels, reopenings have paused, and targeted shutdowns are being reinstated. Economies everywhere face difficult paths back to pre-pandemic activity levels,” she noted.

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