Vietnam's New Normal Paves Way for Economic Recovery
|A factory in Ho Chi Minh city. Photo: Thanhnien|
Looking forward to the last quarter of 2021
The economic picture of the last 9 months is painted with grey color, putting pressure on the last quarter of 2021. This was mentioned not long ago by Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung when working with localities on the socio-economic development plan in 2022.
According to Minister Nguyen Chi Dung, GDP growth this year will be around 3.5-4%.
Economists believe that the economy still had a bright spot in the last 9 months as the macroeconomic stability has been maintained and inflation is under control. Besides, many manufacturing and business activities are still being operated by enterprises.
That is one of the reasons why import/export turnover in the last 9 months still grew strongly by 24.4% over the same period, reaching over 483 billion USD, the balance of payments surplus and foreign money is still flowing into Vietnam.
However, it is also necessary to recognize the challenges that have put great pressure on the economy. According to the President of the Vietnam International Arbitration Center (VIAC), former President of VCCI Vu Tien Loc, the open-door attitude is the most important message in this period while many businesses are facing difficulties, opening the door will be a "breathing machine" for them.
The fourth quarter of 2021 is the golden time to open the economy. The Ministry of Planning and Investment identifies both 2022 and 2023 as the economic recovery period. The economic recovery program after the Covid-19 pandemic must be implemented immediately when it is under control.
Expected GDP growth in 2022 is about 6 - 6.5%
In fact, there is a turning point in the anti-epidemic policy of the Vietnamese Government, which is moving from the goal of “Zero-Covid " to "living with Covid".
This shift is an important foundation for Vietnam's economy to gradually reopen and recover soon in the coming time.
According to the General Statistics Office, there will be many new factors, both opportunities and challenges in 2022. Although the epidemic is likely to be prolonged, complicated and unpredictable, many countries around the world accept to live with the epidemic.
Accordingly, when vaccination rates are high, countries open their doors, combining epidemic prevention measures. Therefore, the recovery momentum will continue.
Along with that, governments still maintain their economic stimulus programs, both monetary and fiscal policy. Thereby, it can be said that Vietnam's exports are still going strong.
In addition, the order of trade and investment structure will inevitably change, including manufacturing and supply chains. All of these will have an impact on Vietnam.
According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the GDP growth rate in 2022 will reach about 6 - 6.5%.
In that case, localities will study and propose solutions to build economic recovery programs after the Covid-19 pandemic, ensure the programs are being implemented immediately when the epidemic is under control, which focusing on key industries of the regions.
According to the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific Fall 2021 Economic Update, Vietnam's GDP growth could reach about 4.8% in 2021 and the economy could converge toward the pre-pandemic GDP growth rate of 6.5 to 7 percent from 2022 onward.
The World Bank also said that easing monetary policy is remaining through a number of actions, including repayment time extension for businesses.
Fiscal policy will be more supportive by accelerating the implementation of public investment projects, especially after the lifting of travel restrictions.
|Vietnam’s GDP is expected to expand by about 4.8 percent in 2021. Photo: VNA|
Previously, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also forecasted that Vietnam's economy will grow 3.8% this year and 6.5% in 2022 due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic. ADB remains optimistic about Vietnam's economic prospects in the medium and long term period.
Economic growth can be supported by the recovery of domestic demand, by accelerating disbursement of public investment, the expansion of new export markets and the recovery of the global economy.
“Vietnam needs to continue deploying resources to mitigate negative social impacts and hedge against negative growth risks. In the coming time, Vietnam needs to pursue green growth and digitalization to improve economic resilience and sustainability”.
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