Greater Efforts For Economic Growth In Vietnam In 2024

In line with this, 2024 represents the penultimate year of the five-year plan from 2021 to 2025. If the growth target of 6% to 6.5% is not met this year, then achieving the goal of the five-plan will become an unfeasible task, according to VOV.

The Vietnamese economy is progressing through its five-year plan for 2021 to 2025 and experienced 2023 with unprecedented difficulties such as the COVID-19 pandemic and global geopolitical instability with increasingly complex which led to unpredictable developments, thereby causing the global economy to stagger, resulting in the Vietnamese economy also being heavily affected.

Overcoming difficulties and challenges whilst standing firm in the face of "headwinds" has seen the national economy continue to achieve important and comprehensive results.

Vietnamese GDP growth in 2023 still reached 5.05%, making it among the top economies recording high growth rates in the world, whilst also boasting a stable macro-economy, controlled inflation lower than the set target, and guaranteed great balances.

If the growth target of 6% to 6.5% is not met this year, then achieving the goal of the five-plan will become an unfeasible task. Photo: VOV

Public, Government, and foreign debts, along with state budget overspending, were all kept in check, while budget revenues still exceeded estimates.

Furthermore, 2023 also recorded great successes for the country on the diplomatic "front", when the nation continuously upgraded its relations with major powers such as the United States, Japan, and China, thereby raising its image, stature, prestige, and position to new heights.

As a result, the value of the Vietnamese national brand reached US$431 billion, moving a notch to rank 32nd out of 100 strong national brands globally. Most notably, international credit organizations, such as Moody's and Fitch Ratings have all highly appreciated the results and prospects of the national economy.

Recently in December 2023, Fitch Ratings moved to upgrade the country’s credit rating from BB to BB+, with a "Stable" outlook.

Moreover, the nation has also become a bright spot in the global economy with a greater focus on international investment flows, especially in the fields of high technology, Industry 4.0 technology, semiconductor chips, AI, and hydrogen. Despite facing difficulties in global investment, the country still was able to attract more than US$36.6 billion in direct foreign investment (FDI) in 2023, as well as disbursing capital at a record high of US$23.18 billion.

All of these factors are creating momentum and confidence for the whole country to enter 2024 with great expectations intertwined with difficulties and challenges that are even greater than the opportunities and advantages.

To realize the goals of the coming, including GDP growth of 6% to 6.5%, there is no other way but to put effort into economic growth. The Government has also determined that the growth target will be the top priority this year, with a particular focus on promoting growth drivers; including exports, consumption; and especially investment such as public investment, private investment, and foreign investment.

This should be done alongside taking advantage of every opportunity to promote new growth drivers such as the digital economy, green economy, circular economy, and innovation.

It can be viewed as imperative to go ahead with innovation, reform, and economic restructuring, whilst allocating resources more reasonably and effectively. This is along with implementing resolutions on economic development by finalizing regional planning, sectoral planning, and provincial planning in order to create motivation for attracting investment for socio-economic development.

There is still a lot of work to be done with high hopes for a Vietnamese economy that will accelerate towards stronger development, thereby creating an important foundation for completing the five-year plan as an important contribution to meeting the nation's aspirations for prosperity in the time to come.

The Ministry of Planning and Investment has outlined three potential economic growth trajectories for 2024, with the peak GDP growth rate forecast at 6.5 percent.

These projections stem from the Government's socio-economic development strategy for the 2021-25 period, combined with endeavors to meet the 2023 growth goal of 6.5 percent.

Given the challenges faced by the Vietnamese economy between 2021-23, 2024 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for Vietnam to accomplish the objectives of its five-year plan.

The Ministry of Planning and Investment believes a GDP growth target of 6 percent would be fitting, given the expected continued risks the global and domestic economies may encounter during the recovery phase.

Under the second scenario, the ministry envisages GDP growth of 6.5 percent, assuming that both the global and regional economies rebound quicker than international organizations' predictions. This scenario also considers a surge in demand, trade, and investment. Concurrently, the domestic market would likely experience revivals in demand, production, business activities, exports, investment, and FDI influx.

For the third scenario, the GDP growth is projected to range between 6 - 6.5 percent, reflecting predictions of swift changes in both global and domestic contexts. The Ministry of Planning and Investment favors this third scenario.

The growth rates could be higher if Viet Nam managed to consolidate existing growth drivers and exploit new drivers which would come from promoting the digital economy, improving labor productivity, the private sector, institutional improvements, and the development of the green economy.

According to the Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic Committee Vu Hong Thanh, the Vietnamese economy’s recovery depended significantly on the global trend and solutions to tackle internal problems.

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