According to Skymet Weather, a western disturbance is currently over Jammu and Kashmir. Another western disturbance is coming after it, at this time it has reached northern Afghanistan and adjoining northern Pakistan.
Due to the effect of western disturbance, an induced cyclonic circulation has developed over central parts of Pakistan. A trough is extending from the southeastern Arabian Sea through coastal Karnataka to Madhya Maharashtra.
During the next 24 hours, dense fog is likely to persist over parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. Cold wave conditions are expected to persist in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh.
Jammu and Kashmir, Gilgit Baltistan, Muzaffarabad and Ladakh may receive light rain and snowfall. Himachal Pradesh is also expected to witness rain and snowfall at some places.
The intensity of rain and snowfall is expected to increase in these hill states from 3 February. Rainfall may occur at isolated places in some parts of Punjab and Haryana from February 3.
|5-day precipitation forecast across India from February 2-6. (TWC Met Team)|
From February 4, rains are likely over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, western and central parts of Uttar Pradesh, northern Rajasthan and parts of northern Madhya Pradesh.
As well as hail in parts of Punjab and Haryana, hailstorm is also expected at one or two places on 4 and 5 February during this rains in Uttar Pradesh.
Parts of North and Northwest India are set to experience increased rainfall and snowfall activity over the next 3-4 days. In view of the predicted weather conditions, ten states and union territories have been placed under an orange alert this week.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a fresh western disturbance is expected to affect the weather over the Western Himalayan Region (WHR) from February 2, and across the plains of Northwest India from February 3.
Under the influence of this system, scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall/snowfall, along with isolated thunderstorms, lightning, and hail, are all very likely over the WHR from Wednesday to Friday, February 3-5. Isolated heavy rain/snow is particularly expected over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Muzaffarabad on Wednesday and Thursday, and over Himachal Pradesh on Thursday.
|Photo: Weather Online|
As per The Weather Channel’s met team, the highest amount of snowfall—somewhere between 20-50 cm—is expected across the northern parts of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Further, the western disturbance is also expected to interact with lower-level southeasterly winds from the Bay of Bengal, with this interaction causing isolated to fairly widespread light to moderate thundershowers, along with isolated lightning and hail, over the plains of Northwest India from Wednesday to Friday.
Central India will also be affected by these systems, as the exact same conditions have been forecast over Madhya Pradesh on Thursday and Friday, and over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand on Friday and Saturday.
In view of these predictions, the IMD has issued an orange alert over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, and Himachal Pradesh on Wednesday, and over Uttarakhand, Punjab, Chandigarh, Haryana, Delhi, and West Uttar Pradesh on Thursday. By Friday, Uttarakhand and West UP will retain the orange alert, and it will be issued over Madhya Pradesh as well. This advisory instructs residents to ‘be prepared’ for rough weather.
Meanwhile, a yellow watch has also been placed over Punjab, Chandigarh, Haryana, and Delhi on Wednesday, over Himachal Pradesh and East Uttar Pradesh on Thursday, over Rajasthan and East UP on Friday, and just over East UP come Saturday. The yellow watch urges people to ‘be aware’ of their local weather situation.
The aforementioned forecasted conditions will create high humidity over the region, effectively giving rise to dense fog. The IMD has predicted dense to very dense fog in isolated to some pockets of Uttar Pradesh during the next 24 hours, and dense fog in isolated pockets of Bihar during the next three days. The Punjab plains are also likely to be engulfed in dense fog on Friday morning, TWC Met Team adds.
While the wet conditions increase, both cold day and cold wave conditions will simultaneously abate, as the IMD expects a gradual rise in minimum temperatures over most parts of Northwest and adjoining Central India over the next 2-3 days. The prevailing northwesterly winds, however, are likely to bring cooler-than-normal minimums back to Madhya Pradesh from Friday onwards.
5-Day Nationwide Weather Forecast
According to Weather.com, a fresh western disturbance is set to affect the weather across the western Himalayan region (WHR) from Tuesday onwards. The brunt of the falls over the next four days (from Tuesday to Friday) is expected over the northern parts of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, where 20-50 cm of snowfall is likely.
Furthermore, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rain/snow, along with isolated thunderstorms, lightning and hail, are all very likely over WHR during February 3-5. Isolated heavy rain/snow is on the cards over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Muzaffarabad on Feb 3-4, and over Himachal Pradesh on Feb 4.
Moreover, the interaction between this western disturbance and lower level southeasterlies from the Bay of Bengal is likely to cause isolated to fairly widespread light to moderate rain/thundershowers with isolated lightning and hail over (i) the plains of Northwest India during Feb 3-5; ii) Madhya Pradesh during Feb 4-5, and over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand during Feb 5-6.
Meanwhile, the northern plains such as Punjab and Haryana will be particularly engulfed in rainfall and possibly thunderstorms on Thursday. High humidity is likely to give rise to dense fog, effectively creating low visibility conditions across the Punjab plains on Friday morning.
In fact, dense to very dense fog is in the forecast over isolated to some pockets of Uttar Pradesh during the next 24 hours. Dense fog is also possible in isolated pockets over Bihar during the next three days, and over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura during the next two days. It will decrease in spatial distribution and intensity thereafter.
As for the temperatures, the overnight minimums across Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining areas are expected to be lower than normal on Tuesday and Wednesday, and rise on Friday and Saturday. Madhya Pradesh could see colder-than-normal minimums from Friday onwards due to the prevailing northwesterly winds.
|Surface Temperature on Wednesday 03 Feb at 11:30pm IST. Photo: Weather Forecast|
Maximum temperatures will be warmer than normal across Rajasthan and adjoining areas on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Scattered snow/rain and thunderstorms are likely over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. Isolated snow/rain and thunderstorms are on the cards for Uttarakhand, while isolated rains and thunderstorms are expected over Punjab and Haryana.
Further, isolated snow/rain is possible over Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, whereas Andaman & Nicobar Islands are likely to experience just isolated rainfall. Dense fog is on the horizon at isolated places over Ganga and Brahmaputra plains. Cold wave and/or cold day conditions are likely over some pockets of eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand.
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