According to Hindustan Times, the season’s first active western disturbance is likely to bring widespread rain and light snowfall to the upper reaches of north-west India on November 14 and 15, and once it passes, wintry winds from the Western Himalayas are likely to bring down the temperature in the northern plains, including Delhi, which has already witnessed an unusually cold October and early November.
|5 day rainfall forecast. Photo: mausam.imd.gov|
According to India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) Thursday bulletin, scattered to fairly widespread rain is very likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh; light rainfall over Uttarakhand is likely over on November 15 and 16, and over the plains of north-west India and adjoining central India on November 15. Parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad are likely to record heavy rain on November 14 and 15.
There may be a gradual rise in minimum temperature, by two to three degrees Celsius over north-west India, and by two to fours degrees Celsius over Central India in the next two-three days. But after the western disturbance passes, minimum temperature is likely to fall by around 3 degrees Celsius, and winter chill may set in.
“We expect heavy rains to be limited to the Jammu & Kashmir region. There will be light snow also but not heavy snow fall because that is expected only when the temperature reaches zero degrees. There is likely to be light and scattered rains in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the period. There will be a fall in temperature over the plains but after November 16 gradually. Minimum temperatures are likely to be well below normal during that period,” said DS Pai, senior scientist at IMD Pune.
“This will be the first moderate WD to affect the northern region this season. Before and during the WD, minimum temperatures will rise before falling appreciably after it passes. There may be a two-three degree fall in temperature from November 16 and 17. Winter chill is normally felt when the minimum goes below 10 degrees Celsius and maximum falls to around 22-23 degrees Celsius. We can expect that after November 17,” said Kuldeep Shrivastava, head, regional weather forecasting centre.
|Photo: Hindustan Times|
The minimum temperature in Delhi on Thursday was 11.6 degrees Celsius, two degrees below normal on Thursday. Easterly winds were blowing over the north-west region at the moment, but the wind direction may shift on Diwali day. “We are also expecting wind speed to be low on November 14 because of the transition in wind direction,” added Shrivastava.
According to India Meteorological Department, heavy rainfall is very likely to occur at isolated places over Jammu-Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal. Additionally, Thunderstorm with lightning very likely at isolated places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Lakshadweep and Kerala & Mahe.
During the next 24 hours, heavy to moderate rains are expected over Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu as well as Andaman and Nicobar Islands with light to moderate rain at many places, Skymet Weather reported.
Moderate showers may fall over Rayalaseema, interior Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and South Interior Karnataka with light rain.
Light rains and snow are likely to occur in the higher reaches of Jammu and Kashmir, Gilgit Baltistan, and Muzaffarabad. Also, Himachal Pradesh will experience activities in one or two places.
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