|President-Donald-Trump-at-a-campaign-event-in-Tulsa-Oklahoma-June-20. (Photo: AFP)|
"If he was any other President, at any other time, Donald Trump's reelection hopes would probably already be doomed," author Stephen Collinson wrote the analysis on the CNN.
Trump is facing one of the most severe political crisis periods having experienced by the US president than ever. The erroneous reaction during the early responding to the pandemic of the Trump's administration made the US the largest epidemic zone in the world, with more than 120,000 deaths. The US president repeatedly "painted a bright picture" of Covid-19, arguing that the nCoV was disappearing, despite the fact that many US states recorded an increase in infections, threatening opening efforts and restoring the economy.
A wave of anti-racist protests and police violence after the death of George Floyd, the 46-year-old black man was nearly cruel for nearly nine minutes by the Minneapolis police, causing Trump to sink deep into a crisis. The threat of a military deployment to quell rioting or to call some protesters "terrorists" were two of many of Trump's statements that have worried advisers to blur the prospect of re-election.
The US Supreme Court last week issued two rulings to protect the LGBT community from discrimination at work and to continue the Program to Suspend Deportation of Children to the United States illegally (DACA), the move contrary to the Trump administration's expectations.
Trump hated to be a "loser" in the race to the White House with former Vice President Joe Biden. However, many polls show that Democratic candidate Biden is "surpassing" Trump. The latest Ipsos / Reuters poll results show that Biden's support rate reaches by 48%, while Trump's is only 35%.
Excerpts from the book named "The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir" by John Bolton, former national security adviser, are scheduled for release on June 23, also "pouring oil" in the fire of Trump's crisis week. In particular, the information that Trump once asked Chinese leaders to help to be re-elected made many skeptical about his tough policy with Beijing.
Trump's crisis week ended with the campaign in Tulsa, Oklahoma on June 20, an event that many epidemiologists and local health officials fear once again detonated "the Covid- 19 "in the US.
The crisis continued to beset Donald Trump when less than 5 months later the US presidential election and all indicators were "red alert" to Trump. Many advisers and close aides of Trump expressed concern that he "treaded his feet" in the race to the White House or no longer interested in the role of "captain" of the American ship. However, Collinson said, "the fact that Trump has never been defeated, even though his every conventional political indicator has always been flashing red."
Many Democrats and dislike-Trump ones fear that Trump is likely to be re-elected as president in the November election. The fact that Trump, the man who once declared "could shoot somebody when stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue in New York without fear of losing any voters", made a surprise in US politics four years ago .
In 2016, almost all poll results about the race between Trump and Hillary Clinton indicated that the Democratic candidate would become president. However, the final victory belongs to Trump.
In a Hill analysis, Joshua H. Sandman says that Trump is still highly competitive in the race to the White House, even winning, though many moves are considered threatening the prospect of re-election. As a populist president with a "America first" view, Trump is still trusted by many Republicans. According to a recent NBC / Wall Street Journal survey, Trump received 89% of the Republican support.
In addition, Sandman believes that the electoral college is still on the Republican side. "The conservative states of the South, the Southwest, the Plains and the Midwest will vote for the Republican regardless of the candidate. The Northeastern states and the West Coast will vote for the Democratic candidate." , Sandman said.
Therefore, Sandman says that the election results will depend heavily on "battleground" states such as Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. At the same time, Ohio, Iowa, Florida and North Carolina are also highly competitive states.
"However, until the election day, the majority of conservative sectors and the economy gradually recovering were two factors that bring these competing states to the Republic," Sandman said.
|Trump-supporters-gathered-outside-the-campaign-event-venue-in-Tulsa-Oklahoma-June-20. (Photo: NYTimes)|
In Politico's interviews in 50 states, many Republican local leaders thought Trump's election prospects would not be worse than 6 months ago and said that the opinion poll results were not reliable. .
Jane Timken, a Republican member in Ohio, said she did not see any evidence showing Trump's support dropped. Meanwhile, Lawrence Tabas, a member of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, predicted Trump not only won in his state but also defeated his rival Biden by 100,000 votes, double the 2016 achievement.
Sandman also added that, compared to Biden, Trump was considered a "master" of campaigning. Trump could effectively use the media and campaign to "paint a unfavorable picture" for opponents in the race to the White House.
Trump said Biden, when he was vice president of the US in 2016, pressured Ukraine not to investigate the corruption scandal in Burisma - the energy company that Hunter, the son of the former vice president, was involved in. Biden denied the allegations, claiming not to talk much with his son about doing business abroad.
Trump has also described Democrats as supporters of socialism, disregarding family values, faith, and patriotism. The US president proudly proclaimed that before the pandemic, the US had "the most advanced economy ever" and said he would restore this success in his second term.
"Trump's aggressive Twitter posts or conspiracy theories are likely to work and put his opponents on the defensive, when they have to find a way to justify," Sandman said.
Many Republican strategists think it's too early to talk about the November's election results, but are optimistic about a good position for Trump. They even believe that the movement to "cut police budgets" does not damage Trump's campaign prospects, but in return will benefit him.
"The more bad things happen in this country, the stronger the support for Trump will be," said Phillip Stephens, a Republican member in Robeson County, North Carolina. "We call him 'steadfast Trump'. Nothing can interfere, because if it does, it will only make the race more interesting in 2016."
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