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ECONOMIC growth in the Asean region could rebound to an average 8 per cent in 2021 on the back of recovery in Chinese import demand and global trade, after falling into recession in the first half of 2020, a report suggested on Monday June 8.

An article on the businesstimes says that the report, written by Oxford Economics and commissioned by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) suggested that most South-east Asian economies will fall into recession in the first half of 2020 before recording a 1.9 per cent contraction for the full year.

Measures to lock down countries and cities in the region to varying degrees have substantially cut domestic demand, with many countries bringing in restrictions on exports of food produce to safeguard domestic food supplies, further dampening export growth.

On the whole, the Covid-19 pandemic is likely to cause the global economy to shrink by 4.7 per cent, the report said. This is more than double the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 and will be the biggest global recession in post-war history.

As per the article, Vietnam will emerge the least affected with its lead in unwinding measures as compared to other countries in Asean, although it is not immune to the sharp slowdown in trade flows, the report said.

Vietnam will emerge the least affected with its lead in unwinding measures

"The adverse impact on South-east Asian economies is forecast to turn the corner in the second half of 2020 as Chinese import demand and global trade recover at a consistent pace, while a slower pace of normalisation will continue to weigh on tourism-dependent economies," the report said, adding that coordinated fiscal stimulus packages and monetary easing from authorities across the region will support the recovery in economic growth.

Mark Billington, ICAEW regional director for Greater China and South-east Asia, said: “Beyond a global health and economic crisis, the pandemic is also an important chapter of an unfolding bigger interconnected catastrophe of climate emergency, massive biodiversity loss and increasing inequality.

"Our recovery will need to include sustainable solutions that benefit nature, society and economy. As countries in the region gradually ease lockdown restrictions and start to open their economies, organisations and businesses will have to adapt to a ‘new normal’ for sustained growth and performance in the post-outbreak world.”

“While fast-growing emerging markets are more likely to reverse the losses in GDP than their slower-growing counterparts, each region will have its own particular experience with the crisis that will dictate the depth of its recession and the strength of its recovery,” Billington added.

Coordinated fiscal stimulus packages and monetary easing from authorities across the region will support the recovery in economic growth, with GDP growth eventually set to rebound to an average 8% in 2021.

Founded in the UK in 1880, ICAEW is a world leading professional membership organization headquartered in London with offices internationally including Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, Viet Nam and Indonesia.

The ICAEW connects with over 150,000 chartered accountants worldwide, providing this community of professionals with the power to build and sustain strong economies.

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